|  | Disclaimer: Forex trading involves high risks, with the potential for substantial losses and is not suitable for all persons. The views expressed in this blogsite are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policy, position, or opinions of Global Forex Trading. Daily Forex Commentary | Daily Forex technical and fundamental analysis on the major currency pairs. | |
Leading analyst Cornelius Luca provides daily commentary for Global Forex
Trading.
In 2002, Luca joined Global Forex Trading,
Division of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd., as one of its analysts who
provides daily, weekly and monthly commentary on the major markets of foreign
exchange. Luca is a world-renown author, teacher and authority in foreign
exchange who has traded and analyzed currencies since 1983. As a qualified
professor of finance, Luca has taught courses at the New York University, Pace
University's Lubin School of Business Graduate Division in New York City and at
the New York Institute of Finance's FT Knowledge. His published works include
Trading in the Global Currencies Markets, which was published by Prentice Hall
and is a comprehensive analysis of the foreign exchange markets, instruments,
players and methods of forecasting. Additional Luca works published by Prentice
Hall include Technical Analysis Applications in the Global Currencies Markets,
which is an in-depth and unique coverage of currency charting analysis. His most
recent book, titled Technical Analysis Applications, will be published by
McGraw-Hill in August 2004. Luca earned a master's degree in business in
international business and finance from the New York University's Leonard Stern
Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in international marketing
from the Bernard Baruch College, The City University of New York. | |
|
| | Forex Market Commentary for August 8, 2008 by Cornelius Luca | GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar made the expected upmove on Thursday, even though it encountered mild weakness early in the day. The European, commodity currencies and the yen remain under pressure amid long liquidation. The dollar could march higher today as well, but some profit taking is possible ahead of the weekend.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell sharply on Thursday after ECB President Trichet flip-flopped through his statement before finally suggesting concern about weakening Eurozone growth. The pair closed at a five-month low and is at a crucial point; a close below 1.5316 would suggest the start of a double top targeting the 1.4600 area, while a failure would signal profit taking on shorts. Tough call, but the early bias is lower.
Initial support now comes at 1.5319. Further support remains at 1.5305 and 1.5240. Distant support now moved to 1.5050.
Immediate resistance is at 1.54050. This is followed by 1.5450 and 1.5515. Above the strong level at 1.5580, distant resistance moved down to 1.5630l. Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated on Thursday after nailing a seven-month high on Wednesday, but the uptrend remains in place. Again, the upside is only slightly favored today and an initial pull back is likely.
Support is at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Distant support follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Immediate resistance remains at 109.65. Strong resistance is at 110.60. The next resistance is at 111.00. Distant resistance is at 112.05.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early gains to slide for a fifth consecutive day on Thursday and closed below a trendline support at 1.9488. Once again, following an early bounce, the pound should see more weakness.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9410. This is followed by 1.9365. Distant support is now seen at 1.9175. Initial resistance now comes at 1.9490. The next level is 1.9585. Above 1.9630, the next significant level is pegged at 1.9760. Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied further to a new high for the uptrend on Thursday. Again, following some pullback, the uptrend should resume.
Initial support is still seen at 1.0560. This is followed by 1.0480, 1.0435 and 1.0405. Distant support now comes at 1.0370.
Above 1.0638, resistance remains at 1.0675. This is followed by 1.0790. Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
| Topic Tags: currency, Forex, FX | |
| | Forex Market Commentary for August 7, 2008 by Cornelius Luca | GFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar continued to rally on Wednesday, as a significant low is in place. The European, commodity currencies and the yen are sinking amid aggressive long liquidation. The dollar should march higher today as well, but the pace of the upmove should decelerate.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell on Wednesday as well and another weak report added insult to injury; German manufacturing orders fell 2.9% in June and the May decline was revised lower.
Again, following some early recovery, the major decline should resume.
Initial support now comes at 1.5399. Further support follows at 1.5305. Distant support now moved to 1.5240.
Immediate resistance is at 1.5450. This is followed by 1.5515. Above the strong level at 1.5580, distant resistance moved down to 1.5630l. Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen exploded to a seven-month high on Wednesday and the uptrend was resuscitated. The upside is only slightly favored today and an initial pull back is likely.
Support moved up to 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65. Distant support follows at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Immediate resistance moved up to 109.65. Strong resistance is at 110.60. The next resistance is at 111.00. Distant resistance is at 112.05.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar collapsed for a fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, and news that UK consumer confidence encountered the largest drop since the Nationwide Building Society survey began in May 2004. Again, following an early bounce, the pound should see more weakness.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9460. This is followed by 1.9410. Distant support is now seen at 1.9365. Initial resistance now comes at 1.9520. The next level is 1.9585. Above 1.9630, the next significant level is pegged at 1.9760. Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied further to a three-month high on Wednesday. Again, following some pullback, the uptrend should resume.
Above 1.0622, resistance moved up to 1.0675. This is followed by 1.0790.
Initial support is now seen at 1.0560. This is followed by 1.0480, 1.0435 and 1.0405. Distant support now comes at 1.0370. Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
| Topic Tags: currency, Forex, FX | |
|
|
| | | Daily Archives |  | August 07, 2008 | | August 06, 2008 | | August 05, 2008 | | August 04, 2008 | | August 03, 2008 | | July 31, 2008 | | July 30, 2008 | | July 29, 2008 | | July 28, 2008 | | July 27, 2008 | | July 24, 2008 | | July 22, 2008 | | July 21, 2008 | | July 20, 2008 | | July 18, 2008 | | July 16, 2008 | | July 15, 2008 | | July 14, 2008 | | July 13, 2008 | | July 10, 2008 | | July 09, 2008 | | July 08, 2008 | | July 07, 2008 | | July 06, 2008 | | July 02, 2008 | | July 01, 2008 | | June 30, 2008 | | June 29, 2008 | | June 26, 2008 | | June 25, 2008 | | June 24, 2008 | | June 23, 2008 | | June 22, 2008 | | June 19, 2008 | | June 18, 2008 | | June 17, 2008 | | June 16, 2008 | | June 15, 2008 | | June 12, 2008 | | June 11, 2008 | | June 10, 2008 |
|
