Pro Commentary Lite ... 30th November 2007 ... AUDUSD

 Price:                             0.8843

Resistance:	0.8872	0.8890	0.8918	0.8952
Support:	0.8835	0.8795	0.8774	0.8753

Bias:

Care - but while 0.8835-40 supports I feel the way is open for a retest of 0.8918 and higher

Daily Bullish:	The 0.8753-85 support held well with a low at 0.8774 and from there we have seen constructive gains back to 0.8872 thus far and I feel this will provide a retest of the 0.8918 high over the course of the day. This should cause a small pullback but then any break above 0.8918 would accelerate the upside towards 0.8973 minimum and probably higher. Next resistance  is at 0.9015-25 which may well cap – so take care.
MT Bullish:	The repeated push higher does seem to support a more bullish scenario and while 0.8753-85 supports we should see a rally above 0.8918 towards 0.9015-25 at least and possibly 0.9048 and 0.9113. (29th November)
Daily Bearish:	Failure in the 0.8753-85 support area tends to argue against a bearish stance. Thus only a breach of the 0.8835-40 pivot support would begin to undermine the upside progress and cause losses down to 0.8795 and probably back into the 0.8753-74 range again. This must hold to retain a bullish stance. Breach extends losses to 0.8711.
MT Bearish:	With the move higher it is difficult to maintain a bearish preference. Thus only below 0.8753 and then 0.8710 and 0.8651 would generate stronger losses. (29th November)

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

29^th November

The structure makes it just about impossible to impose an expanded flat correction and thus I can only suspect that the 0.8651 low was actually Wave A lower. Thus we have plenty of space for a Wave B correction.

Overall we can look at retracements at 0.9025 (50%) and 0.9113 (61.8%) and how we move to that area.

At the moment there is a 50%-61.8% retracement between 0.8753-85 and we should watch this for signs of another move higher.

30^th November

I am labeling the 0.8774 low as Wave –ii- and should now imply a Wave –iii- at 0.9124. However, also take note of the 50% retracement in Wave B at 0.9025.

Ian Copsey