Pro Commentary Lite ... 17th January 2008 ... USDJPY

 Price:                            107.04

Resistance:	107.45	107.67	107.91	108.30
Support:	106.90	106.50	106.22	105.90

Bias:

We have to be cautious about the extent of the recovery but I suspect a decline to 105.60 & 104.95

Daily Bullish:	Losses moved below 106.22 but stalled at the 105.90 support from where we saw a stronger recovery. I still feel there is risk of one more low but in the mean time we have to be a little careful in case we see an extended sideways consolidation. We have bounced from first support at 106.90 and if we are to see any earlier gains again we need a break back above 107.45 and then 107.67. If seen it will raise the risk of a move back above yesterday’s 107.91 corrective high. Stronger resistance is at 108.30-50.
MT Bullish:	Momentum is looking a little bearish and thus only a move above 108.53-80 then 109.21 would provide any relief for 110.11 again.  (15th January)
Daily Bearish:	Below the 106.22 support price found a base at the 105.93 minimum target. I tend to feel that we should see one more dip but whether this happens directly or following a second attempt higher is not clear. To see immediate losses we shall need a dip below this morning's 106.90 low which would then cause further slippage to 106.45-55 with breach there suggesting a test of 105.90 again. Below there are two targets – at 105.60 and then right down at 104.95. This risks sizeable correction from there.
MT Bearish:	We have seen 106.57 so far and I suspect 106.22 is possible before a correction. Only below highlights direct risk to 105.60 and 104.95 but this should cause a larger pullback. (16th January)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

16^th January

I am changing the wave structure just a bit to show the 107.89 low as being Wave –iii- and thus the high at 110.11 is then labeled as Wave –iv-.

We can derive targets for Wave –v- at a minimum of 105.93 (61.8%), 105.60 (66.7%) and 104.95 (76.4%.)

However, within the decline so far from 110.11 I feel the structure has come in 5 waves and this has a 76.4% projection at 106.22. Thus between 106.22-57 I look for a bounce in Wave –b- before the final decline to the lower Wave –v- targets.

17^th January

I somehow feel the bounce from 105.90 is merely a correction before a stronger test of 105.60 and max 104.95 in Wave –v-.

Ian Copsey