Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| January 21, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 1.1090 | Resistance: | 1.1135 | 1.1155 | 1.1190 | 1.1225 | | Support: | 1.1077 | 1.1055 | 1.1020 | 1.0998 |
| Bias: | While 1.1120-35 caps I feel the downside should now resume for 1.0944 and below |
| Daily Bullish: | Price recycled higher and while the 1.1090 peak was broken we have not yet seen breach of the key 1.1135 resistance. Indeed, before I turn to bullish I need this to break. If seen look for an immediate move to the 1.1190-1.1225 resistance area which should cause a pullback. Only breach extends further to 1.1298-04 and possibly 1.1357. | | MT Bullish: | The upside is not looking positive at all. Only a break back above 1.1038 would imply recovery to 1.1100-42. Break will be needed there to extend the gains. (16th January) | | Daily Bearish: | The 1.1135 resistance remains intact and while it does so – which I think will be the case – I still see there being a risk for one last move lower. To confirm reversal lower we require a break back below 1.1055-77 and once seen expect the downside to become a little easier. There does seem to be risk of support at 1.0998 causing a pullback so be careful there. Below keeps the downside on track for 1.0944 and probably the 1.0883 area en route the 1.0806-36 area again. | | MT Bearish: | Losses are developing and momentum still looks weak as we retest the 1.0883 low. Watch for the next supports at 1.0806-36 and 1.0749. Below extends more aggressively to 1.0614 at least. (15th January) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
18th January
Wave –iv- appears to have been seen at 1.1086. I see an internal 161.8% target in Wave c from 1.1086 at 1.0810 and a weekly target at 1.0806. Take care there. Below raise the minimum 61.8% Wave –v- target at 1.0618.
22nd January
While the 50% retracement at 1.1090 was broken, given the shallow Wave –ii- I would not be surprised in this case for the 58.6% retracement to be seen at 1.1135. While that holds we can begin to look for a 3-wave decline back to 1.0836 and to 1.0806 at least. However, by the time we get there we need to be aware of the risk of a larger reversal higher. There is also support at 1.0748. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: CHF, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, Franc, FX, fx-strategy, resistance, support, Swiss, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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