Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| January 28, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 0.8868 | Resistance: | 0.8898 | 0.8928 | 0.8955 | 0.8983 | | Support: | 0.8850 | 0.8831 | 0.8800 | 0.8766 |
| Bias: | There is still no obvious topping pattern - while 0.8850-60 supports look for 0.8928 possibly higher |
| Daily Bullish: | We only saw 4 points below the 0.8770 support and from there we saw gains all the way to the 0.8898 resistance. This is a retracement target but hourly momentum has not developed a bearish divergence (although 4-hour has.) Thus while 0.8850-60 supports we could see another attempt higher. Break of 0.8898 would cause follow-through to 0.8928. Take care as this could force a pullback at the very least. Only above 0.8930 extends the gains to 0.8950-60 and 0.8983. | | MT Bullish: | Nothing has really been convincing but before getting too bullish I’d like to see a break above 0.8900 and only then would the 0.9018 peak appear a possible target again. (28th January) | | Daily Bearish: | While there is no obvious short term momentum reversal signal we should be aware of the key supports. The first is at 0.8850-60 and only below suggests the risk of follow-through. If seen then look for losses to extend to 0.8790-10 followed by 0.8766 and 0.8745. If this is seen it would suggest the 0.8895 peak formed a key high and would open the downside for further tests. | | MT Bearish: | I remain bearish in the longer term but the pullback higher has been quite persistent. We need a break back below 0.8725 then 0.8586-09 to keep the downside structure intact for 0.8511 again. (25th January) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
28th January
The peak at 0.8852 could still be part of a complex Wave –ii- that could be a flat or triangle – unlikely but we can’t completely forget the chance of an expanded flat.
Any earlier move above 0.88520 sees Wave –ii- extend to the 76.4% retracement at 0.8898.
If this breaks then we may have to consider a type of flat correction back to the 0.9018 high again in a larger flat Wave B.
Below 0.8730 would confirm losses to the minor Wave b at 0.9609 while not forgetting the 76.4% retracement at 0.8591. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: AUD, Australian, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, FX, fx-strategy, resistance, support, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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