Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| January 31, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 1.0810 | Resistance: | 1.0820 | 1.0838 | 1.0858 | 1.0874 | | Support: | 1.0778 | 1.0756 | 1.0698 | 1.0673 |
| Bias: | While 1.0858 caps the risk still looks lower back to 1.0756 and later to 1.0698-1.0713 |
| Daily Bullish: | With the 1.0795-11 support giving way and the 4-hour FXS-RSI pushing lower we have to look more to the downside. There is now resistance at 1.0858 and while this caps the emphasis is lower. Thus only an earlier break above 1.0860 would provide greater relief for a move above 1.0900 for 1.0930 minimum and possibly 1.0966 & 1.1010. This higher resistance should cause a correction lower. | | MT Bullish: | The 1.0806-11 target has been breached and suggests we should be patient for the next buying signal which should be lower. Only an earlier break above 1.0900 and then 1.0966 would imply earlier gains. (1st February) | | Daily Bearish: | The dip below 1.0795 to 1.0756 caused 4-hour momentum to push lower and favor the downside still. Thus while 1.0858 caps the downside does look stronger. A move below 1.0778-87 would retest the 1.0756 low and then extend towards the 1.0698-1.0713 area. This should cause a correction higher again. Any breach would extend losses to 1.0652 minimum and probably lower. | | MT Bearish: | Loss of 1.0806 implies we should see lower in a full extension of the decline from 1.1594. A minimum target is at 1.0652 but we should watch for 1.0615 and at most 1.0542 before a larger recovery. (1st February) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
1st February
The break below 1.0795 forces me to look at the full projections in Wave –v-. These rest at 1.0652 (61.8%), 1.0615 (66.7%) and 1.0542 (76.4%.)
If I now take the 1.0845 low as Wave –a- and the 1.0988 high as Wave –b- then wave equality is at 1.0713, a 138.2% projection at 1.0608 (close to the 1.0615 Wave –v- 66.7% projection) and finally a 161.8% projection in Wave –c- comes in at the same level as the 76.4% projection in Wave –v- at 1.0542.
The only risk is that 1.0756 represented Wave –a- and therefore we’ll see a pullback in Wave –b-. However, overall this does suggest subsequent losses. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: CHF, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, Franc, FX, fx-strategy, resistance, support, Swiss, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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