Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| February 06, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 155.34 | Resistance: | 155.75 | 156.11 | 156.52 | 156.99 | | Support: | 154.94 | 154.55 | 154.17 | 153.82 |
| Bias: | Care – there are two possibilities here but overall I still remain bearish |
| Daily Bullish: | Losses developed as expected but stalled just above the 154.94 target and caused a firm pullback. While the 154.94-155.13 area remains intact I still can’t rule out a second corrective move higher though I have my doubts. Thus for this second correction wait for a break back above 155.70-75. If seen it should provide some upside gains towards 156.11 and 156.52 en route a maximum 156.99 resistance. | | MT Bullish: | The downside still looks the more likely direction. Only now back above 156.99-157.31 would provide relief for gains back to 157.43-80 and 158.44-60. (7th February) | | Daily Bearish: | While the levels haven’t been totally accurate the downside has developed and I still feel there are further losses to be seen. Until the 154.94-13 area breaks I still can’t rule out a deeper pullback to around 156.99. While this holds – or we see a direct break below 154.94 (which I tend to favor) the downside can extend further to 153.82-89 which I think will hold. Next support is at 153.04. | | MT Bearish: | The rejection just below the 159.36 highlights the risk of additional losses. Below 157.10 would open up 155.53-83 and 154.62 en route the 152.09 low once again where a correction is again possible. (30th January) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
6th February
The break lower could mean that we’re seeing Wave (a) of Wave (v) and this would imply a decline to the 223.6% projection in Wave iii to 153.82-89. Expect then a Wave iv to be followed by Wave v to retest the 152.09 low area.
Indeed, the 153.82-89 area also represents the 76.4% retracement and the only risk to additional losses is the development of a sideways triangle with a base normally expected at a 76.4% retracement.
Only a move up from today’s low at 155.70 would retest and probably break above the 159.46 high… Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: commentary, currencies, elliott wave, EUR, Euro, European, forecasts, Forex, FX, fx-strategy, Japanese, JPY, resistance, support, technical analysis, Yen | |
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