Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| February 14, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 1.0977 | Resistance: | 1.0980 | 1.1010 | 1.1042 | 1.1082 | | Support: | 1.0945 | 1.0915 | 1.0872 | 1.0854 |
| Bias: | While 1.0915-45 holds the next move should be straight back to the 1.1102-06 highs |
| Daily Bullish: | No break above 1.1106 and the alternative scenario was correct yesterday with losses that have reached 1.0955 thus far and may even have completed the downside. Key resistance is at 1.0980 and 1.1010. It is above here that should start the next move higher. Until then there is risk of losses back to the 1.0945 low and possibly even as far as 1.0915. However, this should provide an excellent buying opportunity. Once above 1.1030 look for gains straight back to the 1.1102-06 highs. | | MT Bullish: | Care, this does have potential for a stronger direct move higher. Any earlier pullback should remain above 1.0915-45 now. Above 1.1139 extends to 1.1194-06 and 1.1298-05 within a larger rally. (14th February) | | Daily Bearish: | Loss of 1.1050-60 did indeed cause a sharp move lower that moved quickly to reach 1.0955 this morning. The last part of this decline is a bit clouded and may even have completed the decline. However, while 1.0980 (max 1.1010) caps there is still risk of losses to 1.0945 and I suspect 1.0915. However, that should be the most we see. Only below 1.0910 extends to 1.0872 and 1.0760-82 en route 1.0728. | | MT Bearish: | The recovery from 1.0728 appears positive and I feel that while 1.0871-1.0915 supports the upside remains the stronger risk. Thus only below 1.0871 and then 1.0816 would revisit the 1.0728 low. (13th February) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
15th February
The flat correction scenario indeed came through even if it wasn’t my first choice. The decline has reached 1.09545 – so just above the Wave efa low at 1.0945. This could have completed the decline but until 1.1010 breaks we cannot rule out a retest of the 1.0945 low and normally a small overshoot can be seen. The 50% retracement in Wave (b) rests at 1.0915 and I can see a small projection from yesterday’s decline at this level.
Thus look for Wave (c) to start at any time. First move should be back to the 1.1102-06 highs and when Wave (b) has been fixed we can look for projections in Wave (c) but I suspect it could get close to the 1.1594 high. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: CHF, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, Franc, FX, fx-strategy, resistance, support, Swiss, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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