Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| February 21, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 1.4800 | Resistance: | 1.4841 | 1.4866 | 1.4901 | 1.4936 | | Support: | 1.4771 | 1.4750 | 1.4705 | 1.4671 |
| Bias: | The top should be met soon – max 1.4866-00 but any drop below 1.4750-70 would see direct losses |
| Daily Bullish: | Pretty close to perfect yesterday with the initial rally stalling just below 1.4755 but then the pullback stalled at 1.4700 and didn’t get back to 1.4665-85. However, we have seen price reach the minimum target at 1.4836 amid a bearish divergence. The full target is at 1.4866 and at most 1.4901. While 1.4771 (max 1.4750) supports the upside is still favored to the 1.4866-00 target area. This should complete the move. Thus only a clean break above 1.49 will imply a move back to the 1.4966 high. | | MT Bullish: | We have toyed with the preferred 1.4695 resistance but only above here would imply a retest at 1.4756 and probably 1.4835-66. However, I think that should be the most we see else expect 1.4966 again. (19th February) | | Daily Bearish: | We are close to a selling opportunity. While the 1.4750-71 area supports a further test of the 1.4866 (max 1.4901) area is implied. As long as the bearish divergence still exists (it’s there in the 4-hour chart also) we should see a firmer reversal lower. An earlier break below 1.4750 would confirm. There is then modest support at 1.4700-10 which should stall the initial decline. Thus only below there provides a stronger reaction towards 1.4637 and below. | | MT Bearish: | The recovery has been deeper than expected and thus points to a 1.45-1.4866 range. While 1.4866-86 caps we should see losses but we’ll have to wait for breach of 1.4480-00 to confirm larger losses. (20th February) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
21st February
Watch carefully. The decline to 1.4618 came in 3 waves and until the 1.4728 resistance is broken it could still cause a triangle to develop. Any earlier move to 1.4755 would suggest a new ABC pattern and thus a correction in Wave b before Wave c should attack the 1.4835-66 target. The only other risk is a flat correction – up to 1.4755 & back to 1.4618.
22nd February
Minimum target met and I feel the 1.4866 level is still possible (allow for small overshoot.) This should complete Wave ^c and thus we can look for Wave ^d to develop. Once the high is confirmed we can derive a target for Wave ^d which is likely to be in the 1.4500-25 area. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, EUR, Euro, European, forecasts, Forex, FX, fx-strategy, resistance, support, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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