Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| February 28, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 0.9432 | Resistance: | 0.9460 | 0.9485 | 0.9499 | 0.9545 | | Support: | 0.9408 | 0.9384 | 0.9365 | 0.9332 |
| Bias: | While 0.9460-85 caps we should see a pullback at least |
| Daily Bullish: | Price maintained its upward momentum to break above 0.9399 and come to a halt just below the next target at 0.9460. A bearish divergence has developed and should imply a correction at the very least. Indeed, any pullback should be viewed as a correction only. Thus only directly above 0.9460-85 would cause extension higher through 0.9499 and to 0.9545. Take care as this could cap. | | MT Bullish: | The 0.9460 has stalled progress but it doesn’t look as if the larger rally has peaked. Thus while 0.9236-53 area supports we should see further gains above 0.9460 for 0.9545 minimum and at most 0.9685. (28th February) | | Daily Bearish | Having reached the 0.9460 resistance amid a bearish divergence I do feel a correction is likely. Do be aware of the small risk of seeing 0.9477-85 first. However, the main direction should be lower today with a breach of 0.9403-08triggering follow-through to 0.9365 which should cause a small reaction. Overall though I still feel the downside has a little way to go with loss of 0.9365 seeing a move down to 0.9332, 0.9300 and over time to 0.9236-53. | | MT Bearish: | We should be seeing further gains but in the meantime we are likely to see a correction to 0.9236-53 at the most. Thus only below here would cause direct losses to 0.9190 – probably lower. (28th February) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
28th February
The break above 0.9399 means that the 0.8511 low was a corrective low and thus we are seeing what I feel is a 3-wave rally. The Wave equality target in Wave (c) is at yesterday’s 0.9460 high. However, I also note that 0.9477 is a 261.8% projection in Wave –iii-.
Thus we should now see a correction in Wave-iv- that should be quite shallow given Wave –ii- was deep. This should keep the retracement to the 38.2%-41.4% retracement area between 0.9236-53. Also note the last Wave b support at 0.9365 which should produce a reaction of some kind. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: AUD, Australian, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, FX, fx-strategy, resistance, support, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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