Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| March 03, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 1.0410 | Resistance: | 1.0417 | 1.0435 | 1.0456 | 1.0486 | | Support: | 1.0375 | 1.0336 | 1.0307 | 1.0280 |
| Bias: | Slightly mixed but beginning to feel we could see a move down to 1.0216-48 |
| Daily Bullish: | The 1.0320 level broke but we then saw a recovery from the 1.0307 low. This appears to break the structure I was considering yesterday and there has been no obvious reversal signal from momentum. Therefore wait for a test of 1.0216-48 (probably closer to the low end) and if this is accompanied by a bullish divergence then it should be a good buying level. Only an earlier break above 1.0417-35 would attack the 1.0456 corrective high and trigger follow-through to 1.0486 (take care) and 1.0564-1.0618. | | MT Bullish: | As price keeps declining we may get an opportunity to buy for a correction around 1.0216. At the most the 1.0618 (max 1.0671) area should cap & breach will be needed to generate stronger gains. (4th March) | | Daily Bearish: | With a marginal new low at 1.0307 I feel that on balance the downside may well still be at risk. We really need the 1.0417-35 area to cap and for a break below 1.0375 to generate a test of 1.0332-40 which could cause a small reaction. A subsequent decline below yesterday’s 1.0307 low would spark additional losses to 1.0280 and probably the 1.0216-48 area where I expect a base to develop. Only below 1.0198 sees 1.0110-23. | | MT Bearish: | The 0.9993-1.0110 targets remain although we should see a pullback before seeing the expected test. This correction should remain below 1.0575-1.0676. Below 1.0200 sees a direct test of the LT targets. (3rd March) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
4th March
Keep in mind the potential targets for Wave (v) (starting from 1.1594) are at 1.0110 (61.8%), 0.9993 (66.7%) and 0.9760 (76.4%.)
The 223.6% projection in Wave –iii- at 1.0320 was only marginally broken but given the momentum picture still looks bearish it is beginning to look like we’ll see another dip to the 261.8% projection in Wave –iii- at 1.0216.
This should then generate a correction in Wave –iv- that should move as high as 1.0572-1.0633.
Only an earlier pullback (with 1.0307 as the end of Wave –iii-) would imply resistance at 1.0618-1.0671. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: CHF, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, Franc, FX, fx-strategy, resistance, support, Swiss, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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