Releases from Europe: January Forecast Actual
German Trade Balance EUR 15.5bn 17.1bn
French Industrial Production (MoM) +0.0% +0.5%
French Industrial Production (YoY) +2.2% +2.7%
French Manufacturing Production (MoM) +0.2% +1.2%
French Manufacturing Production (YoY) +1.7% +3.1%
French Trade Balance EUR - 4.0bn -3.39bn Pretty good numbers out of Europe this morning with both Germany & France posting numbers better than forecasts and suggesting that stability has been restored to European manufacturing. The trade balances were also good. While the Euro blipped higher on this so far there has been no follow-through.
The following economic releases are due today:
January
Italian Industrial Production (MoM) +0.6%
Italian Industrial Production (YoY) - 2.7%
Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) - 1.2%
U.K. Industrial Production (MoM) +0.1%
U.K. Industrial Production (YoY) +0.5%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (MoM) +0.1%
U.K. Manufacturing Production (YoY) +0.1%
U.S. Wholesale Inventories (MoM) +0.5% February
U.K. PPI: Input (MoM) +1.6%
U.K. PPI: Input (YoY) 18.3%
U.K. PPI: Output (MoM) +0.6%
U.K. PPI: Output (YoY) +6.0% March
Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence 2.70
The week has started off quietly enough although Asia did see some mild selling pressure for the Greenback. However, with a relatively subdued release calendar this week the willingness to probe new lows has not been present.
For the States Thursday’s advance retail sales are probably the most influential but still will unlikely manage to generate any significant move in the Dollar. From Europe there is a strong of industrial production and inflation numbers that should maintain the recent positive bounce that has been seen this year. It seems unlikely that economic releases are going to generate any additional sales in the Dollar and we are therefore left to watch for comments from officials but again they have been open with comments and probably there is nothing new to cause any sharp movements. Thus the only real chance of stronger moves this week could come from any unscheduled surprise – which probably won’t be forthcoming. Therefore it looks like Friday’s lows – maybe minor new lows – are likely to be it for now and we should concentrate on a likely dull week of an erratic but upward Dollar recovery which could be the first breather the Dollar has had in 4-5 weeks. This may even last through to after the Easter break.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 103.23-51 1.5502-15 1.0335-80 2.0329-67
Res: 102.40-80 1.5430-72 1.0255-83 2.0232-48 Spt: 101.20-40 1.5313-34 1.0165-88 2.0155-78
Spt: 100.26-46 1.5254-79 1.0110-31 2.0066-96 | 
