GFT Daily Market Commentary
The FX markets remain a period of consolidation and this means the dollar is still all over the place. Cable got hurt but the other majors made little progress. Again, the downtrend for the dollar is still in place, but you should expect further choppy trading on the last day of March.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar made little progress on Friday, but the medium term outlook is bullish as my model remains long. Expect another choppy attempt to pad its gains.
Initial resistance remains at 1.5858. This is followed by 1.5904 from a pivot high. The next level is 1.5970. Distant resistance now comes at 1.6160.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.5745. Below 1.5655, there is distant support at 1.5480.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed early gains to close slightly lower on Friday, as expected. My model is long, but I remain square here because the risk is on the downside. Choppy to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate resistance remains at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 101.25. The next level is seen at 101.90. Initial support is seen at 99.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75.. Below 98.57, distant support is at 98.10. Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell sharply and unexpectedly on Friday – my model went short. I expect choppy trading as the pair is approaching the tip of a triangle.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9880. Below 1.9800, there is a pivot low at 1.9738.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0010. A break above 2.0090 would signal another further rally to the peak at 2.0192. Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss did nothing on Friday. The medium term outlook remains is bearish but I prefer to be square here.
Immediate support is still seen at 0.9883. This is followed by 0.9790. Below 0.9642, distant support is now pegged at 0.9500.
Initial resistance remains at 0.9985. The next level is 1.0115. Further resistance is at 1.0200.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
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