Releases from Europe: March Forecast Actual
Italian Services PMI 47.2 48.8
French Services PMI 57.3 57.3
German Services PMI 52.5 51.8
Euro-zone Services PMI 51.7 51.6
Euro-zone Composite PMI 51.9 51.8
U.K. Services PMI 53.3 52.1 The services PMI numbers were just a little on the soft side in March, the most noticeable being the German figure which tumbled rather surprisingly to 51.8. The Euro-zone services PMI recorded a 5 ½ year low. One of the concerning features of the numbers were the softer employment components and also the firmer price components. The figures are not really enough to justify any strong move in either direction but should put the European currencies on the back foot given the run of recent sentiment. The ECB will probably be content with the slowing in the economy which it hopes will have a moderating impact on inflation.
The following economic releases are due today:
February
Euro-zone Retail Sales (MoM) +0.2%
Euro-zone Retail Sales (YoY) +0.0% March
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (29th) 365K
U.S. Continuing Claims (22nd)
U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM Composite 48.5
The recovery in the Dollar over the course of this week is a testament to how much the excessive bearish sentiment that prevailed over the course of this year has dissipated. For so long the market’s catchphrase appeared to be “see a bid – hit it.”
In fact, as the Euro spiked up to almost reach the 1.5901 high on Monday of this week there came a slew of comments from the market how the Dollar was going to weaken further. Indeed, at that time there was little chance it would penetrate. What has changed since then to cause such a change in perception? U.S. data released do seem to have found a degree of stability although no one will describe this as evidence of a base yet. European numbers have begun to edge lower again. From the U.S. we have the weekly jobless data and the non-manufacturing ISM is expected to edge lower but may defy the pessimists. More than likely though the decision will be left for tomorrow’s non-farm payroll data, which if yesterday’s ADP and Challenger data is correct could well provide a continued relief for the Dollar.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 103.47-67 1.5750-72 1.0249-91 1.9919-59
Res: 102.90-18 1.5680-00 1.0167-96 1.9850-95 Spt: 102.20-35 1.5575-85 1.0065-05 1.9727-67
Spt: 101.81-15 1.5454-70 0.9939-49 1.9662-87 | 
