European releases overnight: February Forecast Actual
Euro-zone Retail Sales (MoM) +0.2% - 0.5%
Euro-zone Retail Sales (YoY) +0.0% - 0.2% Germany’s rather soft retail sales earlier in the week clearly reflected in the Euro-zone numbers released yesterday. However, very clearly the shortfall against forecasts shows that the lack of confidence to spend has spread across continental Europe in general and is not confined to a tight group of member countries. As mentioned before, this will be the next real risk that could generate the next shock. As things stand now, European banks are generally able to cope with the market upheavals, perhaps with the exception of Bayerische Landesbank. However, what remains unclear whether there is a layer of smaller banks that may be vulnerable to any further shocks. One shock of a hedge fund or LBO going down could tighten credit conditions further and that remains the risk while consumers fail to keep bending the plastic. Remember that most recessions are caused by consumers failing to spend…
States releases overnight:
March Forecast Actual
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (29th) 365K 407K
U.S. Continuing Claims (22nd) 2937K
U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM Composite 48.5 49.6 Once again the U.S. numbers come in mixed, but that implies that something is not as bad as expected. Yesterday’s non-manufacturing ISM came in solidly above forecasts and maintains the general stable series of figures seen this week. The jobless claims were the fly in the ointment. Cue the non-farm payrolls figure tonight which consensus forecast sees a 63K increase in jobless. This monthly ritual so often keeps the market nervously twitching for the few days prior to release and this week has been no different. All too often the numbers come and go without as much as a whimper from the market. The only problem is knowing which it will be. Bernanke’s comments over the past two days have provided no more than we already knew so the Asian and European session will probably extend the general lack of direction until release. Whichever way the Dollar reacts there doesn’t look like being excessive follow-through in either direction with the market now acknowledging a greater duality of risk from both sides of the Atlantic. Add to that the fact that the fiscal stimulus looms and most consider there to be a more than 50:50 chance of seeing a stronger H2 from the States and we can say that the prior bearish sting in the tail is close to finding an antidote…
More later once the daily analysis has been done…
There following releases are due from Asia due today: Australia February Retail Sales (MoM) +0.3% | 
