Releases from Europe: March Forecast Actual
Swiss Unemployment Rate 2.6% 2.6% February
French Trade Balance EUR -3.7bn -2.765bn Early European data is fairly neutral with Swiss unemployment in line with forecasts and the French trade deficit slightly better than forecast in February. No one is going to get too excited about that, although the figures do impress given the rest of the numbers have been showing a softening. However, the outlook is still soft for export demand and this is worsened by the high level of the Euro. Otherwise the morning has been quiet with just one other statement from Oman which has confirmed that there are no plans to move away from the Dollar peg. This follows a similar pledge by the UAE and should go a long way to calming any nerves that further Dollar sales will not be triggered by such an event.
The following economic releases are due today:
February
German Industrial Production (MoM) - 0.4%
German Industrial Production (YoY) +5.3%
U.S. Consumer Credit USD 5.5bn April
Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence +0.2
The U.S. Dollar has been firm in Asian trading which is in stark contrast to the poor employment data on Friday. It does come as a bit of a surprise and pushing key resistance levels at 103.57-86 Yen, 1.5620-40 Euro, 1.0169-17 Swissie and 1.9755-87 are broken the downside probably still has more legs.
Still, market sentiment is nowhere close to the frenzied level of a month ago with the balance of risk between the States and Europe being reevaluated. The IMF’s Stauss-Kahn was speaking to the Financial Times saying that the need for public intervention is becoming a requirement and dismissed the European’s notion that the credit crisis is a U.S. problem. In addition he also cast doubt on the notion that globalization has allowed a decoupling from the dependence on the United States. He emphasized that this is a global problem and will affect developing countries such as China and India also. He pushed a global push in tackling the housing and credit problems directly while suggesting that public funds be used to buffer bank’s capital buffers. The economic release calendar is fairly sparse this week with the market retaining focus on Thursday’s rate decisions from the BOE and ECB followed by the G7 meeting on Friday. This could keep trading subdued although the Dollar may still come under a degree of pressure. However, if seen there does seem limited room for follow-through to new lows.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 103.57-86 1.5810-57 1.0331-52 2.0030-47
Res: 102.61-93 1.5700-40 1.0169-17 1.9910-55 Spt: 101.70-06 1.5620-41 1.0120-30 1.9757-88
Spt: 100.87-29 1.5510-48 1.0030-51 1.9695-27 | 
