Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| April 07, 2008 | | An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary | Price: 1.0072 | Resistance: | 1.0120 | 1.0140 | 1.0171 | 1.0217 | | Support: | 1.0070 | 1.0044 | 1.0013 | 0.9980 |
| Bias: | While 1.0140-71 caps I look for a test of 1.0044-50 and after a small pullback lower to below 1.0013 |
| Daily Bullish: | Yesterday saw a stronger than expected pullback above 1.0130 which then stalled 2 points above the 1.0169 resistance. Losses from here do seem firm. However, watch the 1.0044-50 area which could generate a correction but should struggle above 1.0090-00. Thus only a recovery back above the 1.0115-20 pivot area would provide relief to the downside and would allow a move to 1.0171 at least. Above extends the upside to 1.0217 and 1.0249-73. | | MT Bullish: | While I still like the upside from a MT basis there does seem to be a growing argument for a move back to 0.9839 first. Thus only back above 1.0217 would trigger gains to the 1.0332-52 area. (8th April) | | Daily Bearish: | The pullback stalled higher than expected just 2 points above the 1.0169 resistance and from there we have seen losses which look constructive. Early on watch support around 1.0044-50. This should cause a small pullback but this should struggle around 1.0090-00 and then generate additional losses to 1.0013 and probably through for the 0.9980 pivot area that then has an eventual target at 0.9889 and 0.9839. | | MT Bearsh: | The upside is beginning to show signs of being overstretched but we’ll need a break below 1.0065 to generate losses back to the 0.9839 minimum and 0.9784. Only below sees new lows. (4th April) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
7th April Gains have been seen but these still haven’t managed to take out the 1.0248 high. The depth of the pullback from 1.0217 appears to be deep enough tot suggest that a peak has been seen but the manner of the decline is somewhat indecisive.
I do have a bearish wave count but the 1.0120-30 area must cap in an expanded flat in minor Wave ii and then trigger losses back towards the 0.9870 Wave –b- low and to a wave equality target at 0.9839 at least.
8th April Yesterday’s pullback appears to be a deeper minor Wave ii than expected. This then keeps the more complex Wave –b- in intact in which the 1.0217 high was Wave b and thus we should see a wave equality target at 0.9839. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: CHF, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, Franc, FX, resistance, support, Swiss, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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