Pro Commentary Lite ... 14th April 2008 ... EURJPY

 Price:                             158.92

Resistance:	159.34	159.60	159.87	160.14
Support:	158.42	158.00	157.55	157.30

Bias:

I suspect a pullback to 160.14 (max 160.50) before lower again

Daily Bullish:	Friday saw gains stall between the 161.15 and 161.70 resistance points to generate a stronger decline. I suspect the first part of the decline is complete at 158.42-58 and this should generate a correction higher above 159.34. There could be a little playing around in the 159.60 area but this should eventually break for 159.87 and 160.14 at least. Take care as I feel this will cap. There is also resistance at 160.50 and only above here risks a stronger rally to 160.96 and 161.34 again.
MT Bullish:	The 161.39-60 target has been achieved. While there is minor risk of extension to 162.35-43 this should hold. Only above maintains the bullish momentum for 163.13 and probably 163.93-03. (8th April)
Daily Bearish:	Losses were quite strong from the 161.34 high seen on Friday but I feel they may have met initial support at 158.42-58 which should cause a pullback to 159.87-160.14 at least – max 160.50. From this resistance I suspect additional losses back to 158.42-58 initially which should still hold for a smaller correction. Next support is then found at 157.-30-38 followed by 156.61.
MT Bearish:	We still appear to be seeing a more bearish structure emerge and this will require the 160.14-50 area to cap to generate stronger losses below 158.42 for 156.61-83 and I suspect much further to 154-155. (14th April)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

10^th April

The reaction lower has still been limited but encouraging for the view of a flat Wave (ii) having been seen. 159.45-50 marks the last minor Wave b of Wave v and this should cause a pullback before losses should then target the 157-158 congestion area.

14^th April

The move down to 158.58 appears to be a wave equality move in Wave c of Wave –i- and thus while Wave –ii- stalls around the 50%-61.8% retracement at 160.14-50 we should see the next leg lower in Wave –iii- that is likely to stall around the 154-155 area.

Ian Copsey