Releases from Japan:
Forecast Actual
March Machine Tool Orders (F) (YoY) +2.9% +3.3%
Releases from Europe: March Forecast Actual
German CPI (F) (MoM) +0.5% +0.5%
German CPI (F) (YoY) +3.1% +3.1%
Fairly uneventful data from Europe so far. Confirmation of the German CPI at 3.1% was in line with forecasts but the EU harmonized number blipped higher to +3.3% which again places the ECB firmly in hawkish territory but remain restrained due to the credit crisis. They will be well aware of the fragility of some LBO’s and the potential damage that could be unleashed on the market if a high profile LBO collapsed.
The following economic releases are due today:
February
Italian Trade Balance (Total) EUR - 4.22bn
Italian Trade Balance (EU) EUR +125mn
U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate 5.2% March
U.K. Jobless Claims Change - 1.8K
U.K. Claimant Count Rate 2.5%
Euro-zone CPI (MoM) +0.9%
Euro-zone CPI (YoY) +3.5%
U.S. CPI (MoM) +0.3%
U.S. CPI (YoY) +4.0%
U.S. CPI ex food & energy (MoM) +0.2%
U.S. CPI ex food & energy (YoY) +2.4%
U.S. Building Starts 1020K
U.S. Building Permits 970K
U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) - 0.1% April
Bloomberg Global Confidence The Fed is due to publish its Beige Book
The Asian session has been particularly quiet with the market remaining nonplused over the Dollar. European and U.S. equity markets managed a positive day and with the exception of China Asia has followed suit.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Merrill’s are likely to report additional write-downs today of around $6-8bn which will bring total losses to more than $30bn since October. The bank is preparing to lay of between 10% and 15% of their workforce in an attempt to contain costs. But the Dollar remains steady in Asia following yesterday’s boost from the Empire State Fed survey that staged a massive recovery in April. Following three failures to break decisively above 1.5900 Euro a certain reluctance to push this barrier has developed and the emphasis does appear to be lower once again although momentum is slow. Even then the market probably prefers to wait for tonight’s CPI, building and industrial production numbers from the States before committing to further Dollar buying. The Fed is also due to publish its beige book but there does seem little doubt that the main message will be a stronger than anticipated slowdown which is going to take some time for the economy to shake off. The biggest risk for a stronger move still appears to be in the Pound which slipped further yesterday and has recovered straight into my 1.9711-46 resistance area which should cap for further losses.
Note important support and resistance areas:
USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 102.54-93 1.5958-86 1.0127-51 1.9824-50
Res: 101.91-26 1.5885-12 1.0065-85 1.9729-46 Spt: 101.10-40 1.5770-10 0.9986-17 1.9600-30
Spt: 100.29-59 1.5668-99 0.9925-55 1.9494-41 | 
