GFT Daily Market Commentary
Decent US data failed to help the dollar advance versus the European currencies on Wednesday, but the yen edged lower. With the European currencies alternating up and down days, one can only expect choppy trading again. Keep an eye on the Philly Fed, but it will be released late enough to make much difference.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged to a new record high on renewed expectations that the Fed may cut rates before the ECB does. My model went long again. I still prefer to remain square, as euro/dollar remains uncomfortably high.
Initial resistance is at1.5975. The next level is 1.6040. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.6185.
Immediate support is seen at 1.5900. Below 1.5860, euro/dollar has support at 1.5810. Distant support is at 1.5670. Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen edged further on Wednesday. My model is long, so this is cool. Expect another range-bound day.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. The next level is at 102.95. Good support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75. At 100.25 there is another 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 99.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75. Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed from a new low for the downmove to close higher on Wednesday. My model is still short while the bias remains on the downside.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9620. This is followed by 1.9504. Distant support is at 1.9370.
Initial resistance is at 1.9750. Above it there is a pivot high at 1.9842 and another one at 2.0046.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss had on outside day and closed lower on Wednesday, but my model remains long. Choppy trading is favored today as well, and the upside is initially preferred.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0050. Above 1.0105, there is resistance at 1.0140 and 1.0190. This is followed by 1.0251.
Immediate support is seen at 0.9965. This is followed by 0.9875. Support is then pegged at 0.9790.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
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