Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| April 17, 2008 | | An excerpt from Pro Commentary | Price: 1.9721 | Resistance: | 1.9735 | 1.9770 | 1.9805 | 1.9824 | | Support: | 1.9678 | 1.9640 | 1.9599 | 1.9550 |
| Bias: | Slightly mixed now – with the previous bearish structure now unrealistic |
| Daily Bullish: | We did see earlier gains as expected but these easily pushed through the 1.9711-46 area and came to a halt at 1.9805. This breaks the larger bearish structure I had been following and leaves the short term a little mixed. There is support between yesterday’s 1.9599 low and 1.9640-48 which I suspect will hold and allow a deeper move higher. A break above 1.9735 and then 1.9770 would trigger gains. There is mild resistance at 1.9824 but there does seem to be an argument to see 1.9893 again. | | MT Bullish: | Although the large bearish structure is unrealistic now I still see potential to the 1.9335-61 area. Resistance is around 1.9893-00 and above here would allow a deeper pullback to 2.0047 and probably 2.0193. (17th April) | | Daily Bearish: | The failure to move below 1.9750 does imply an alternative MT wave structure but that could still allow losses to 1.9335-61. However, I doubt these will be direct. I suspect the 1.9599 low should remain intact for now – with 1.9640-48 also supporting. A retest of 1.9893 would appear to provide a potential selling opportunity. Only directly below 1.9599 would imply direct losses through to 1.9520 at least and probably lower. | | MT Bearish: | It is impossible to retain the bearish structure but I cannot rule out losses back to the 1.9335 low – possibly even lower in a complex correction. 1.9900 should hold for any direct losses. (17th April) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
17th April
The previous more impulsive bearish structure just cannot be sustained with the continued pullbacks and this is suggesting a more complex daily correction. The recovery from 1.9335 to 2.0397 came in 3 waves and this opens up the potential for a more complex structure – most likely a flat or expanded flat. With what appears to be 2 ABC structures lower already it is hard to envisage an expanded flat (unless the next Wave (a) reaches 1.9335 again.) Thus for the moment I feel the 50% retracement in the second Wave (x) at 1.9895 should hold for a move lower and we’ll see how this progresses. Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: British, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, FX, GBP, Pound, resistance, support, technical analysis, UK, US, USD | |
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