Releases from Europe:
Forecast Actual
Feb Swiss Adjusted Retail Sales (YoY) +1.6% +3.3% Pretty damn good retail sales numbers from Switzerland which will go a long way to relieve the SNB that consumers may be holding back from purchases. Food & furniture were the main drivers which is encouraging that energy related purchases aren’t hogging the main part of the household budget.
The following economic releases are due today:
February
Euro-zone Trade Balance EUR - 3.5bn
Euro-zone Construction Output (MoM)
Euro-zone Construction Output (YoY) March
U.S. Leading Indicators +0.1% April
Swiss ZEW Survey: Expectations - 60.0
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (12th) 365K
U.S. Continuing Claims (5th)
U.S. Philadelphia Fed - 15.0 The ECB are due to publish their April monthly report
Asian trading has been customarily quiet following last night’s dive to new lows against the Euro.
Yesterday’s economic releases were quite mixed with a much better than forecast industrial number countering the worse than forecast building starts and permits. However, the market claims that the downside was fueled by the anticipation that the Fed will cut interest rates again later this month while the ECB cannot afford to cut rates. However, this was hardly fresh news and has been discounted in the market for several weeks. It is more likely that the story was fueled by the need to place a reason on the Dollar’s decline. The Beige Book also provided no fresh news. On the contrary the interesting factor about yesterday’s movements in the Dollar was the fact that it rallied against the Yen and this has followed-through this morning. When considering the Dollar’s lows against the traditional safe-haven currency – the Swiss Franc - are also a long way lower, the underlying implication is that the Dollar is being regarded in different light in some quarters. Still, this shouldn’t stop the Dollar from plumbing new lows against the Euro and over the next day or two we are likely to see the 1.6065 area reached. At that time, unless the lows against the Yen and Swiss Franc are approached the risk is rising for a technical reversal. Again, today’s economic releases are unlikely to produce much of a surprise and it may therefore be difficult for yesterday’s 1.5978 high to be broken and thus the risk is for a day of consolidation. Note important support and resistance areas: USDJPY EURUSD USDCHF GBPUSD
Res: 102.93-40 1.6042-65 1.0109-27 1.9842-93
Res: 102.26-54 1.5960-87 1.0037-61 1.9735-70 Spt: 101.21-40 1.5874-00 0.9933-72 1.9640-78
Spt: 100.59-69 1.5802-44 0.9846-70 1.9520-50 | 
