Excerpt from: Pro FX Commentary Lite
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| April 17, 2008 | | An excerpt from Pro Commentary | Price: 0.9370 | Resistance: | 0.9399 | 0.9411 | 0.9445 | 0.9477 | | Support: | 0.9355 | 0.9332 | 0.9300 | 0.9268 |
| Bias: | While 0.9332-42 supports I look for one final move higher to the 0.9445 target before lower again |
| Daily Bullish: | Price pulled back perfectly into the 0.9332-42 support area and this should now provide the base for a final rally back to around the 0.9399 high and eventually to the ideal target at 0.9445. At this point watch out for a bearish divergence in the hourly and 4-hour charts. Only a clean break above 0.9450-55 would imply extension to 0.9496-0.9515 before lower. | | MT Bullish: | Further gains have been seen and these should now reach the 0.9445 target but should trigger a stronger reversal lower. Only above 0.9455 would imply a test of 0.9496-0.9515. (17th April) | | Daily Bearish: | The 0.9332-42 support has held and remains the barrier to stronger losses. I prefer to wait for test to around 0.9445 to find a selling opportunity. Only directly below 0.9330 would imply immediate losses that would then make their way down to 0.9300-05 and 0.9268 where a temporary pullback is possible ahead of a test of the 0.9235 corrective low which should cause a pullback. Next support is at 0.9204-14. | | MT Bearish: | Look for a peak at 0.9445 and from there much stronger losses. An earlier break below 0.9330 would imply direct losses to 0.9230-35 at least and probably lower. (17th April) |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 
16th April
The failure to see gains move above 0.9307 is a concern. It maybe we are seeing a complex correction or perhaps the 0.9345 high was the top of Wave (c) and thus Wave (ii). Back below 0.9204 would confirm losses and until then there does still remain one scenario that could see 0.9445-55.
17th April
The 0.9399 high seen yesterday looks to be Wave iii of Wave c in Wave v. Thus while the 50% (max 58.6%) retracement at 0.9332-42 supports we should see a 76.4% projection in Wave v to the 0.9445 target where (c) will have extended by 138.2%. This will for Wave (ii) and thus the next move should be back to the 0.8952 low… Ian Copsey | Topic Tags: AUD, Australian, commentary, currencies, Dollar, elliott wave, forecasts, Forex, FX, resistance, Support, technical analysis, US, USD | |
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