Pro Commentary Lite ... 25th April 2008 ... GBPUSD

 Price:                             1.9744

Resistance:	1.9753	1.9775	1.9809	1.9830
Support:	1.9720	1.9684	1.9659	1.9622

Bias:

Today should see the correction higher begin and may stall around 1.9866-95

Daily Bullish:	Losses were seen to the 1.9690 support and just 6 points below. This has occurred with a bullish divergence in the hourly chart and an oversold reading in the 4-hour chart. Therefore today should see a move back higher. Initial resistance is at 1.9775 which should hold for a while. However, while any pullback remains above the 1.9700-20 area we should see eventual break to allow the upside to extend through 1.9809 and towards the 1.9866-95 area which should be enough on the day.
MT Bullish:	With the 1.9690 support seen and basically holding we should be within a sideways consolidation between 1.9700 and 1.9970. Only a clean move above 1.9970-00 would generate a retest at 2.0025-47. (25th April)
Daily Bearish:	Losses found a low just 6 points below the 1.9690 support and I feel momentum has just about run out of steam for now. Only while the 1.9775 area caps and we see a sharp drop below 1.9684 would I look for direct follow-through to 1.9659 minimum and at most 1.9599-09 which I feel should provide a correction. Next support is at 1.9542 and 1.9501.
MT Bearish:	While the 1.9684 low seen yesterday holds we need be just a little more patient while the sideways consolidation completes (top at 1.9970). Below 1.9680 and 1.9599 triggers losses to 1.9335-61 again. (25th April)

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

25^th April

With the decline reaching the 1.9690 wave equality target it looks more and more like a triangle. If so this should cause a move back up to the 61.8%-66.7% projection in Wave ^c to around 1.9947-68.

This should cause further consolidation in Waves ^d and ^e before finally completing the intermediate Wave (x) to allow the third and final ABC move down to 1.9335-61 at least.

In the bigger picture this looks like a flat correction and a small chance of an expanded flat. However, I’ll judge how it gets to 1.9335-61 first.

Ian Copsey