Pro Commentary Lite ... 14th May 2008 ... USDJPY

 Price:                            104.68

Resistance:	104.90	105.27	105.68	106.06
Support:	104.45	104.28	104.00	103.65

Bias:

105.27 is likely to cap but while 104.40-50 supports we should see additional gains to 105.68

Daily Bullish:	Gains have developed in line with expectations but haven’t quite met the 105.27 first target, stalling just below the 104.95 level. I still feel we should see this progress to 105.27 but this should cause a pullback. While this remains above 104.40-50 we should then see the next leg higher to around the 105.68 peak but look for a slightly larger correction from there. Only a direct break above would take price more directly towards the eventual 106.82 target.
MT Bullish:	12th May: Losses have moved down to 102.56 around where there is quite a strong pivot support area. I suspect this may well provide the basis for a final move to 105.57-68 and followed by 106.82 before a larger reversal.
Daily Bearish:	The upside is progressing well and until otherwise proven we should treat any declines as corrective only. Indeed, the 105.27 level should provide such a pullback but any losses from here shouldn’t move below the 104.40-50 area – at most the larger pivot support at 104.00. Only consider the possibility of stronger losses on a break of this pivot support. If seen then next support will be around 103.25-35 followed by 102.18-56.
MT Bearish:	7th May: I have to remain cautious here as I still feel the 106.82 target is achievable. We seem to be seeing a deeper correction with supports at 102.84 and maximum 102.18. Only below 102.00 would signal direct losses.

 

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

14^th May

The recovery from 102.56 is encouraging with a minor Wave iii target at 105.27. While any Wave iv remains above 104.40-50 we should see Wave v develop towards the 105.68 high to complete Wave –a-.

Clearly this should be followed by a Wave –b- and finally a Wave –c- towards the 50% retracement in daily Wave (iv) at 106.82.

This would complete a triple three and should ideally be accompanied by a bearish divergence in the daily chart as well and in shorter time frame chart also.

Ian Copsey