GFT Daily Market Commentary
A massive rally in the US indices, signs of thawing of the credit markets and expectations for a large rate cut today made for a massive slide on the dollar against the European and the commodity currencies vis-à-vis a dollar/yen rally. None of that is going to last for long, so let’s all enjoy it, at least until 2:15 PM today, when the FOMC will announce the size of the rate cut.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar reversed from a new low of its downtrend and formed a bullish reversal. My model went long. That was nice, especially for an oversold pair, but this reversal has no legs. The medium-term bias remains bearish.
Above 1.2840, resistance is seen at 1.3040. Only a break above 1.3260 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar.
Immediate support is at 1.2645. The next level is 1.2555. Below 1.2445, distant support is now at 1.2335.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made its largest one-day reversal in a quarter century and my model went long. But the 20-day moving average held and the medium-term outlook remains bearish. I like selling into rallies from here.
Initial support is seen now at 96.75. The next level is 95.70. Below 94.40 there is Friday’s low of 90.94.
Immediate resistance is at 98.45. The next level is 99.70. Above 100.50, resistance is now seen at 103.05. Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied sharply on Tuesday and my model went long. But the pair remains in an inside range. Thus, the downside is still favored, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.
Initial resistance is at 1.6112. The next level is 1.6285. Distant resistance looms at 1.6540.
Immediate support is at 1.5815. The next level is at 1.5590. Distant support is at 1.5270 from a pivot low.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss was the exception to the rule and lacked much direction. It should edge higher soon, as the medium-term risk remains on the upside.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.1520 and 1.1485. The next level is 1.1410. Distant support comes at 1.1205.
Initial resistance is at 1.1600. The next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish | 
