FX-Strategy Pro Commentary

194923 Resource 119238 128654 128654 1200542323742 1200542323742 Controlled Pro Commentary Lite ... 17th January 2008 ... USDJPY

An excerpt from FX-Strategy's Pro Commentary

Price:                            107.04<table style="WIDTH: 100%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Resistance:</td><td>107.45</td><td>107.67</td><td>107.91</td><td>108.30</td></tr><tr><td>Support:</td><td>106.90</td><td>106.50</td><td>106.22</td><td>105.90</td></tr></tbody></table><img alt="Hourly chart with indicators" hspace="0" src="http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPY60mJan17.gif" align="baseline" border="0" /><table style="WIDTH: 100%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Bias:</td><td>We have to be cautious about the extent of the recovery but I suspect a decline to 105.60 & 104.95</td></tr></tbody></table><table style="WIDTH: 100%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" border="1"><tbody><tr><td>Daily Bullish:</td><td><span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Losses moved below 106.22 but stalled at the 105.90 support from where we saw a stronger recovery. I still feel there is risk of one more low but in the mean time we have to be a little careful in case we see an extended sideways consolidation. We have bounced from first support at 106.90 and if we are to see any earlier gains again we need a break back above 107.45 and then 107.67. If seen it will raise the risk of a move back above yesterday’s 107.91 corrective high. Stronger resistance is at 108.30-50.</td></tr><tr><td>MT Bullish:</td><td><span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Momentum is looking a little bearish and thus only a move above 108.53-80 then 109.21 would provide any relief for 110.11 again.  (<span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">15th January)</td></tr><tr><td>Daily Bearish:</td><td><span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Below the 106.22 support price found a base at the 105.93 minimum target. I tend to feel that we should see one more dip but whether this happens directly or following a second attempt higher is not clear. To see immediate losses we shall need a dip below this morning's 106.90 low which would then cause further slippage to 106.45-55 with breach there suggesting a test of 105.90 again. Below there are two targets – at 105.60 and then right down at 104.95. This risks sizeable correction from there.</td></tr><tr><td>MT Bearish:</td><td><span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">We have seen 106.57 so far and I suspect 106.22 is possible before a correction. Only below highlights direct risk to 105.60 and 104.95 but this should cause a larger pullback. (<span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">16th January)</td></tr></tbody></table> ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS<img alt="Elliott Wave Chart" hspace="0" src="http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a111/ToshiYamada/JPYEWJan17.gif" align="baseline" border="0" />16th JanuaryI am changing the wave structure just a bit to show the 107.89 low as being Wave –iii- and thus the high at 110.11 is then labeled as Wave –iv-. We can derive targets for Wave –v- at a minimum of 105.93 (61.8%), 105.60 (66.7%) and 104.95 (76.4%.)However, within the decline so far from 110.11 I feel the structure has come in 5 waves and this has a 76.4% projection at 106.22. Thus between 106.22-57 I look for a bounce in Wave –b- before the final decline to the lower Wave –v- targets. 17th January<span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">I somehow feel the bounce from 105.90 is merely a correction before a stronger test of 105.60 and max 104.95 in Wave –v-.<span style="FONT-SIZE: 8pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'MS Mincho'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: JA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">Ian Copsey 9 application/xml false commentary currencies Dollar elliott wave forecasts Forex FX fx-strategy Japanese JPY resistance support technical analysis US USD Yen FX-Strategy Pro Commentary Unique, comprehensive and insightful analysis http://www.gftforex.com/services/procommentary?aid=446 Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; hc; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 ICopsey 202.216.243.97 false true false false true 119238 blog blogsite/GFTForex/web