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196324 Resource 128466 128654 128654 1202111605229 1202111605229 Controlled European Mid Morning Update 4th February 2008

One more Dollar low to go?

There have been no further releases.The following economic releases are due today:December Euro-zone PPI                   (MoM)     +0.1% Euro-zone PPI                    (YoY)     +4.3% U.S. Factory Orders            (MoM)     +2.4%January U.K. HBOS House Prices     (MoM)     - 0.4% U.K. HBOS House Prices      (YoY)     +4.5% U.K. Construction PMI                         55.0 U.S. Challenger Job Cuts    (YoY) February Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence  5.70 Friday’s numbers from the States highlighted the fragile nature of the Dollar’s decline. There is no doubt that the market is bearish. There is really no mention of any bullish view at all. Economic data is negative for the most part but as the manufacturing ISM showed, not universal. Of course the market attempted to push the Dollar down on Friday but managed only the 1.4950 Euro target and just above the 1.0713 Swissie Dollar support. Even Dollar-Yen which almost guaranteed profits on the downside has seen that sentiment dry up.The Dow Jones managed a modest recovery of 93 points on Friday and the Dollar ended the day higher. Very clearly the negativity from the close of last year has not been replicated and the market is plainly wary of opening significant new short positions ahead of the fate of the fiscal stimulation package. Technically this is allowing Dollar bullish momentum divergences to develop at a time when long term Dollar cycles are finding a low and imply an imminent recovery. The coming week therefore should prove to be a testing point for the Dollar. At the most the 1.5210 Euro and 1.0542 Swissie levels are likely to hold.In the meantime today’s numbers will probably have little impact although the U.S. factory orders will prove interesting given the weak element of the ISM on Friday was the weak order book. Overall it implies a day of range trading today. Note important support and resistance areas:         USDJPY        EURUSD       USDCHF       GBPUSD Res:  108.28-65    1.4923-53    1.0990-21    1.9791-45 Res:  107.45-77    1.4840-89    1.0924-38    1.9724-62Spt:   106.10-55    1.4731-69    1.0800-30    1.9650-80 Spt:   104.95-40    1.4659-85    1.0728-67    1.9542-73 9 application/xml false CHF currencies EUR fiscal stimulation Forex FX GBP ISM USD Want to know more about currency trading? Read about the largest global market http://www.gftforex.com/land/index.asp?aid=446 Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; hc; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727; MS-RTC LM 8) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 ICopsey 202.216.243.97 false true false false true 128466 blog blogsite/GFTForex/web