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201836 Resource 128466 128654 128654 1208333377591 1208333377591 Controlled European Mid Morning Update 16th April 2008

Quiet, uneventful and passive trading before tonight’s U.S. figures

Releases from Japan:                                                      Forecast   Actual March Machine Tool Orders (F) (YoY)  +2.9%    +3.3%        Releases from Europe:March                                             Forecast   Actual German CPI (F)                     (MoM)   +0.5%   +0.5% German CPI (F)                      (YoY)   +3.1%   +3.1% Fairly uneventful data from Europe so far. Confirmation of the German CPI at 3.1% was in line with forecasts but the EU harmonized number blipped higher to +3.3% which again places the ECB firmly in hawkish territory but remain restrained due to the credit crisis. They will be well aware of the fragility of some LBO’s and the potential damage that could be unleashed on the market if a high profile LBO collapsed. The following economic releases are due today:February Italian Trade Balance (Total)  EUR   - 4.22bn   Italian Trade Balance (EU)      EUR   +125mn  U.K. ILO Unemployment Rate              5.2%March U.K. Jobless Claims Change               - 1.8K U.K. Claimant Count Rate                   2.5% Euro-zone CPI                    (MoM)     +0.9% Euro-zone CPI                     (YoY)     +3.5% U.S. CPI                            (MoM)     +0.3% U.S. CPI                             (YoY)     +4.0% U.S. CPI ex food & energy   (MoM)     +0.2% U.S. CPI ex food & energy    (YoY)     +2.4% U.S. Building Starts                           1020K U.S. Building Permits                          970K U.S. Industrial Production     (MoM)    - 0.1%April Bloomberg Global Confidence The Fed is due to publish its Beige Book The Asian session has been particularly quiet with the market remaining nonplused over the Dollar. European and U.S. equity markets managed a positive day and with the exception of China Asia has followed suit. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Merrill’s are likely to report additional write-downs today of around $6-8bn which will bring total losses to more than $30bn since October. The bank is preparing to lay of between 10% and 15% of their workforce in an attempt to contain costs. But the Dollar remains steady in Asia following yesterday’s boost from the Empire State Fed survey that staged a massive recovery in April. Following three failures to break decisively above 1.5900 Euro a certain reluctance to push this barrier has developed and the emphasis does appear to be lower once again although momentum is slow. Even then the market probably prefers to wait for tonight’s CPI, building and industrial production numbers from the States before committing to further Dollar buying. The Fed is also due to publish its beige book but there does seem little doubt that the main message will be a stronger than anticipated slowdown which is going to take some time for the economy to shake off.The biggest risk for a stronger move still appears to be in the Pound which slipped further yesterday and has recovered straight into my 1.9711-46 resistance area which should cap for further losses. Note important support and resistance areas:         USDJPY        EURUSD       USDCHF       GBPUSD Res:  102.54-93    1.5958-86    1.0127-51    1.9824-50 Res:  101.91-26    1.5885-12    1.0065-85    1.9729-46Spt:   101.10-40    1.5770-10    0.9986-17    1.9600-30 Spt:   100.29-59    1.5668-99    0.9925-55    1.9494-41 9 application/xml false CPI currencies ECB Fed FOMC forex FX GBP German interest rates Japan machine orders Pound resistance Interested in currency trading? Learn about the world's largest financial market http://www.gftforex.com/land/index.asp?aid=446 Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; hc; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727; MS-RTC LM 8) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 ICopsey 202.216.243.97 false true false false true 128466 blog blogsite/GFTForex/web