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201946 Resource 128466 128654 128654 1208498558234 1208498558234 Controlled European Morning Update 18th April 2008

Dollar trades quietly in Asian trading

Releases from Australia:                                              Forecast    Actual Q1 Import Price Index   (QoQ)   +0.5%     +2.7% Q1 Export Price Index   (QoQ)    +3.0%     +3.5% Releases from Japan:March                                                     Prior      Current Consumer Confidence Households              36.1       36.7 Tokyo Department Store Sales       (YoY)  +2.8%    - 0.7% Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY)  +0.9%    - 1.2% The recovery in consumer confidence was the first rise in 6 months though it’s difficult to identify the reason fro the improvement. With the export outlook pretty grim and the Tankan Report showing that corporations are tightening their belts for a rough ride there only seems one way for confidence to go right now. Even in this report 85.7% of those surveyed are expecting prices to continue rising. Certainly, considering the poor department store sales in March it certainly doesn’t support a confident consumer. Indeed, during a month when new seasonal fashions appear in the stores it would be normal to see a boost in sales. The implication is possibly that more funds are being diverted to pay for energy related goods. The new BOJ Governor Shirakawa took the opportunity to make clear his own outlook at the meeting of regional BOJ branch managers. “Japan's economic growth is slowing due to the effects of high energy and material prices,” he said. “Corporate profits have been leveling off, albeit at a high level, and business sentiment has recently been cautious.”As such growth is expected to “grow at a slower pace for the time being and follow a moderate growth path thereafter.” On the impact of the subprime problem he felt that the situation has been manageable although the reports of subprime losses continue to expand. He sees no threat to the stability of the country's financial system. The following economic releases are due today:February Italian Industrial Orders    (MoM)   - 0.5% Italian Industrial Orders     (YoY)   +5.2% Italian Industrial Sales      (MoM)   - 1.0% Italian Industrial Sales       (YoY)  March German Producer Prices    (MoM)   +0.5% German Producer Prices     (YoY)   +4.0% U.K. PSNCR                       GBP    18.0bn U.K. PSNB                         GBP      7.8bn U.K. M4 Money Supply      (MoM)   +0.5% U.K. M4 Money Supply       (YoY)   11.6% U.K. M4 Sterling Lending     GBP    15.0bn I am quite satisfied with yesterday’s developments. Indeed, across the board the signs are growing that a larger Dollar recovery should soon begin. Note again that once again the Dollar preformed really quite well against the Swissie and Yen – certainly not reflective of the persistent and excessive Dollar weakness of a month or two back. The Euro itself pulled back nicely to the top of the 1.5802-44 retracement range. I still can’t rule out a dip down to the lower end (and allow for a slightly larger dip with a major support line from the 1.4437 low coming in around the 1.5750-75 area. Breach of this would confirm a larger trend reversal.However, I can’t see that breach coming directly. Again, all round I still feel that there is room for Dollar losses against all Europeans and the Aussie – probably the Canadian Dollar also though this is less certain. But in all case the relative structures all imply a stronger Dollar rally thereafter. The losses should begin to develop tonight at least but whether they reach targets today is touch and go. It may require Monday’s trading also.As mentioned yesterday – with the Dollar sentiment so bearish it’s either a brave call or a stupid one. However the signals are there, the Dollar cycles are turning bullish and momentum is also indicating potential for reversal. Therefore let’s keep this in mind and if we get the right reactions at the right levels and possibly something stronger from the central banks (or some other event) it’ll make the decision a lot easier. Note important support and resistance areas:         USDJPY        EURUSD       USDCHF       GBPUSD Res:  103.93-04    1.6042-65    1.0171-17    2.0022-51 Res:  102.71-04    1.5930-50    1.0127-41    1.9923-65Spt:   101.85-15    1.5802-45    1.0023-50    1.9816-40 Spt:   100.81-30    1.5701-21    0.9939-78    1.9723-61 9 application/xml false Australia consumer confidence currencies department store sales exports Forex FX imports Japan Interested in trading currencies? Read about the world's largest financial market http://www.gftforex.com/land/index.asp?aid=446 Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; hc; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727; MS-RTC LM 8) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 ICopsey 202.216.243.97 false true false false true 128466 blog blogsite/GFTForex/web