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202382 Resource 128466 128654 128654 1209333944158 1209333944158 Controlled Asian Morning Update 28th April 2008

Calm before the storm?

European releases from Friday:Q1                                       Forecast    Actual U.K. GDP                 (QoQ)      +0.4%    +0.4% U.K. GDP                 (QoQ)      +2.6%    +2.5%March Euro-zone M3           (YoY)       10.6%    10.3% States releases from Friday:       April                                             Forecast   Actual University of Michigan Confidence (F)   63.5      62.6 Friday ended the week on a quiet note as far as economic releases were concerned. The U.K.’s Q1 GDP figure was in line with forecasts and while it has eased considerably from the buoyant levels of last year it does highlight that there is still life in the old bulldog yet. The Pound does look set to remain in a 1.93 -2.02 range for several more months now though eventually should break lower. European officials maintained their comments on Forex rates, inflation being too high but also that the financial market turmoil not over yet. Nothing new though Noyer added that they are in the process of understanding precisely what triggered the latest developments and we will then find the appropriate way to help the market move in the right direction.In the States the final University of Michigan Confidence for April was revised lower which shouldn’t be a huge shock. President Bush took time just to remind everyone that Santa is on his way earlier this year with tax rebate checks beginning to hit bank account this week. “The money's going to help Americans offset the high prices we're seeing at the gas pump and the grocery store and it will also give our economy a boost to help us pull out of this economic slowdown,” he said. Unless of course they choose to save it for a rainy day.However, all this will be overwhelmed by the week’s figures which will reach a climax on Wednesday with the release of Q1 GDP numbers and the FOMC decision.Indeed, the GDP numbers in particular could well influence the Dollar significantly. Consensus forecast is for a marginally positive annualized number. If this proves to be the case then the entire argument for recession becomes more uncertain. Clearly the market has been pricing in a negative H1 growth with potential for a mild recovery in H2. A positive Q1 GDP could begin to change the picture and avoid an official recession that requires two consecutive quarters of negative growth.The European inflation and final retail & manufacturing PMI numbers are also out this week. Risk is for any mild downward revisions to knock home the chance that the differentials between the U.S. and Europe are less than forecast. Technically the Euro completed a perfect bearish reversal week and does warn of a potential larger reversal in trend. It certainly has come at the right time with Dollar cycles having made a low for the year (against the European currencies) and the expectations are for a general move higher for the Dollar for the remainder of the year.However, ahead of Wednesday’s numbers the chances are that the market is going to be playing a cautious waiting game. However, by the end of the week the strong risk is for a higher Dollar. More later once the daily analysis has been done…The following releases are due from Asia due today:Japan March Retail Sales                  (MoM)    +0.7% March Retail Sales                   (YoY)    +1.0%U.K. April Nationwide House Prices   (MoM)    - 0.5% April Nationwide House Prices    (YoY)    +0.0% 9 application/xml false Bush checks currencies fiscal stimulation FOMC Forex FX GDP inflation Q1 US New to Forex? Learn more about the currency markets http://www.gftforex.com/land/index.asp?aid=446 Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; .NET CLR 1.1.4322) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 ICopsey 122.21.255.181 false true false false true 128466 blog blogsite/GFTForex/web