203826 Resource 128469 128655 128655 1210636135868 1210636135868 Controlled GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for May 13, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary The dollar fell further on Monday versus the euro and the pound, but rallied versus the yen and closed flat against the franc. The US currency should remain under pressure across the board this week, but some initial consolidation may be seen.  Keep an eye on the UK and US retail sales reports.  Euro/dollar Euro/dollar rallied on Monday and the upmove was spiffy enough to turn my model long for the first time since late April. A break above 1.5580 adds confidence to this bullish outlook.      Immediate support is now seen at 1.5487. Strong support then comes at 1.5415. Distant support follows 1.5287.  Initial resistance is at 1.5580.  Above 1.5600, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5685.    Oscillators are bullish. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish  MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed  LONG-TERM: BullishDollar/yen Dollar/yen rallied on Monday to erase all of the losses incurred a day earlier.  My model remains (uncomfortably) short. There should be some residual demand, but the upside looks limited.   Immediate resistance is at 104.00. Next strong barrier remains at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.Initial support is now at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. This is followed by 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.    Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias    MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish LONG-TERM: BearishSterling/dollar Record inflation in UK means that the BoE cannot really cut interest rates. Consequently, sterling/dollar was catapulted from a 2 ½-month low to close higher on Monday. My system remains short, and the short-term outlook is slightly bearish.     Immediate support is at 1.9495. Below it, support remains at 1.9410.  This is followed by 1.9363. Distant support looms at 1.9185.   Initial resistance now comes at 1.9580.  The next level is 1.9635.  Above 1.9690, there is distant resistance at 1.9840. Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: Mixed Dollar/Swiss franc Dollar/Swiss consolidated in an inside range and closed little changed in Monday.  My model remains short, but I expect more sideways trading.   Immediate support is still seen at 1.0350.  This is followed by 1.0300. Support is then still pegged at 1.0255.       Initial resistance now comes at 1.0470. If this close level gives way, expect a test of 1.0515 and 1.0550.Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed  MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish LONG-TERM: Bearish 10 application/xml false currency Forex FX Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 6.0; Windows NT 5.1; SV1; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 luca 69.118.109.245 false true false false true 128469 blog blogsite/GFTForex/web