217321 Resource 128469 128655 128655 1225337747332 1225337747332 Controlled GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for October 30, 2008 by Cornelius Luca

GFT Daily Market Commentary An early rally in the US indices and ongoing profit taking in FX triggered another massive slide on the dollar against the European and the commodity currencies, and a dollar/yen rally.  Once the Fed met the market expectations and cut rates by 50 bps to 1%, stocks fell.  The pattern seen during the past two days is in its final stages, so today the market should be even choppier than usual.    Euro/dollar The euro/dollar rallied further after forming a bullish reversal a day earlier and my model remains long. The 20-day moving average held the upside, and only a clear break above it would turn the outlook positive. Until then, the medium-term bias remains bearish.    Above 1.3200, resistance is now seen at 1.3260. Distant resistance is at 1.3570 would signal a sustained recovery of euro/dollar. Immediate support is at 1.3060. The next level is 1.2907. Below 1.2695, distant support is now at 1.2335.     Oscillators are bullish. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish  MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: BearishDollar/yen Dollar/yen rallied to a one-week high early Tuesday but then reversed gains, as the 20-day moving average held.  My model remains long, but the medium-term outlook remains bearish.  I wouldn’t be too long here.   Immediate resistance is at 98.45. The next level is 99.70. Above 100.50, resistance is now seen at 103.05.Initial support remains at 96.75.  The next level is 95.70.  Below 94.40 there is Friday’s low of 90.94.  Oscillators are mixed. NEAR-TERM: Mixed  MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: MixedSterling/dollar Sterling/dollar surged further on Wednesday and my model remains long.  The upside is limited, as the medium-term outlook remains bearish.    Initial resistance is at 1.6635. The next level is 1.6760. Distant resistance looms at 1.6940.Immediate support is at 1.6365. The next level is at 1.6090. Below 1.5735, distant support is at 1.5270 from a pivot low.   Oscillators are rising. NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish LONG-TERM: BearishDollar/Swiss franc Dollar/Swiss caught up with the other the European currencies and collapsed on Wednesday. In the short term the downside is favored, but the medium-term risk remains on the upside.   Immediate support is at 1.1260.  The next level is 1.1180. Distant support comes at 1.1055.  Initial resistance is at 1.1400. Above 1.1500, the next level is 1.1767. This is followed by the area between 1.1867 and 1.1873.    Oscillators are mixed.   NEAR-TERM: Mixed  MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish LONG-TERM: Bullish 10 application/xml false currency Forex FX Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 7.0; Windows NT 5.1; Q312461; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; InfoPath.1; .NET CLR 2.0.50727) 127.0.0.1 127.0.0.1 luca 69.118.109.245 false true false false true 128469 blog blogsite/GFTForex/web