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Pro Commentary Lite ... 5th June 2008 ... EURUSD

Thu, 05 Jun 2008 00:06:25 -0400

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 1.5390

Resistance:	1.5425	1.5460	1.5490	1.5531
Support:	1.5383	1.5361	1.5328	1.5283

Bias:

The 1.5361-85 area provides support while gains will need a break back above 1.5500 and 1.5627

Daily Bullish:	Extreme tight range trading didn’t really clears up the picture too well but overall we’ve not seen a break below the 1.5361-85 support identified yesterday. Thus morning has seen a dip to 1.5383 and if this holds then we should see a move back above the 1.5425 pivot area for a recovery back to 1.5482-00 again but beyond that we need to be cautious. Next major resistance would be the old 1.5627 corrective high. Recovery from 1.5361 would imply gains to 1.5560.
MT Bullish:	5^th June: We are hitting key supports now between 1.5361-85 but where we see the low affects how far a recovery can be seen. Above 1.5600-27 would be needed to suggest potential for a recovery towards 1.5720-60.
Daily Bearish:	This morning’s losses have hit the 1.5383 support and even if it breaks I still see support at 1.5361 and each of these two supports have potential for a recovery to 1.5500 at least. Thus only look for extension lower on a break below 1.5360 and if seen it should trigger follow-through to 1.5328 minimum and probably to the 1.5255-83 area at least.
MT Bearish:	5^th June: We are now testing critical supports but only below 1.5360 suggests a more direct attack back at the 1.5283 low and possibly even further to 1.5188 while a larger target is at 1.5082.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

4^th June

We have seen the decline to the 76.4% retracement at 1.5409 perfectly and this now provides the next test as to whether we are seeing a triangle within a larger consolidation or whether we could see a move all the way down to 1.5283 again in a possible flat correction. I can’t even rule out loses beyond should the 1.5817 high have been Wave (b).

In any event, at this point I feel an internal 261.8% projection in a minor Wave iii rests at 1.5361 and this should be the most we see today. Before 1.5361 is a small 161.8% projection in a minor Wave c at 1.5385 so this 1.5361-85 area appears to be important.

Breach would be bearish for 1.5328 and 1.5283.

Ian Copsey

Pro Commentary Lite ... 4th June 2008 ... USDJPY

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 01:08:06 -0400

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 105.18

Resistance:	105.35	105.54	105.86	106.25
Support:	104.80	104.50	104.20	103.86

Bias:

While 104.80 remains intact we should see extension higher above 105.50-86 and towards 106.82

Daily Bullish:	We did see one more dip yesterday but the bounce from 103.86 was quite decisive. It is encouraging for the expectation of a move to the 106.82 target although I have to say the manner of the rally is not 100% clear. Right now while 104.80 continues to support I still see room for additional gains through 105.54 and then 105.86 en route 106.25 and 106.55-82. There is also an additional target at 107.00. With a daily bearish divergence already in place this 106.60-00 area should provide a cap.
MT Bullish:	29^th May: The 106.82 target is back on track and while the 105.68-00 area should initially cause a pullback the next rally should hit the 106.82 retracement target which should cap or force stronger gains to 107.36-78.
Daily Bearish:	Yesterday’s losses stalled at the top of the 103.62-84 support and provided a lift. If there is any weakness in the bullish view then it is that we could see a short period of consolidation. There is support at 104.80 and any breach of this would trigger follow-through back below 104.50 and probably 104.20. This needs to hold else look for a second dip, this time below 103.86 for 103.46-54.
MT Bearish:	4^th June: The short term is a little uncertain and I’d still prefer to see a test of 106.82 first but any earlier break below 103.46-86 would open up a stronger reversal back to the 102.56-72 lows again.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

4^th June

It looks as if yesterday’s 103.86 low provided the low in Wave (b) being a 61.8% retracement. A wave equality target in Wave (c) rests at 107.00 and just 18 points above the daily 50% retracement in Wave (iv) at 106.82.

I would prefer to see this directly but if the 104.80 support fails it opens up two possible alternatives.

First could be a sideways (triangle?) Wave (b.) The second could in fact a deeper recycling of Wave (b) to the 76.4% retracement at 103.46.

Thus we need to exercise some care at this stage but until 103.40 and 102.56-72 breaks the upside still looks more likely.

Ian Copsey

Pro Commentary Lite ... 3rd June 2008 ... EURJPY

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 01:03:09 -0400

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 162.44

Resistance:	162.60	162.88	163.20	163.54
Support:	162.06	161.82	161.57	161.13

Bias:

While 162.88-13 caps the downside still appears to be the more vulnerable side

Daily Bullish:	Loss of 163.30-40 provided the signals for losses that reached the 162.13 target and minor breach to 162.06. This is producing a correction and I feel this has legs to 162.88 but take care there as in a more bearish structure this should cap. Breach would extend the move to 163.13-29 and if seen would tend to suggest that we have merely seen a correction lower. As such we could then see gains back above the 163.50-54 pivot resistance and to 163.89 before the 164.20-46 highs.
MT Bullish:	3^rd June: Yesterday’s losses place doubt upon any further upside but I’d be forced to consider this on a break above the 163.13-29 area. If seen then look for a swift retest of 164.20-46 and above to the 164.96 high.
Daily Bearish:	Losses came as preferred, stalling at 162.06 and while the 162.88-13 area caps there is still argument for additional losses. A move down from this resistance that breaks below 162.06 would provoke further strong losses to 161.57 minimum and probably the 161.13-25 area which should cause a correction higher.
MT Bearish:	30^th May: The picture is as clouded as before and only below the 163.29-41 lows would raise the chance of follow-through below 162.56 and 162.15 en route 161.25.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

2^nd June

The wave structure remained very messy but the low at 163.07 was a 38.2% expansion of the recovery from 163.29 to 164.21 and the recovery back to this high argues for an expanded flat which means we should now see losses.

A break below 163.07 would confirm and suggest a minimum Wave iii target at 162.57 (138.2%) and more likely 162.13 (176.4%.) Take care here as this could cause a pullback else we may well be talking about a 261.8% projection to the 161.13-25 area.

Only above 164.46 would imply a retest of the 164.96-00 area…

Ian Copsey

Pro FX Commentary Lite | GFT Forex

Pro Commentary Lite ... 5th June 2008 ... EURUSD

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